Mechanistic models for predicting insect responses to climate change

Abstract

Mechanistic models of the impacts of climate change on insects can be seen as very specific hypotheses about the connections between microclimate, ecophysiology and vital rates. These models must adequately capture stage-specific responses, carry-over effects between successive stages, and the evolutionary potential of the functional traits involved in complex insect life-cycles. Here we highlight key considerations for current approaches to mechanistic modelling of insect responses to climate change. We illustrate these considerations within a general mechanistic framework incorporating the thermodynamic linkages between microclimate and heat, water and nutrient exchange throughout the life..